我国居民消费率偏低的省际因素分析——来自省级面板数据的证据  

Provincial Factors to China's Low Consumption Rate——Evidence from Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：蒋春秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2010年第6期12-18,共7页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：本文解析发现我国居民消费率的下降由省际消费率下降引致,而非省际间的贫富差距。在理论上分析省际消费率的影响因素后,运用2000～2007年间的省级面板数据建立个体固定效应模型对这些可能因素进行实证检验。结果显示,地区生产总值对省际消费率的影响呈现U型,目前仅浙江、江苏、山东、广东的地区生产总值临近拐点,预期未来地区经济的发展会促进居民消费率的提升。劳动者报酬份额偏低并持续下降是消费率偏低的另一主要原因。为进一步提升居民消费率,有效推进经济发展方式转变与促进劳动者报酬份额提高是必要前提。This article finds the drop of the national consumption rate these years is rooted in the declining provincial consumption rate while the provincial economic gap becomes smaller.We analyze theoretically the possible reasons of the declining provincial consumption rate,and then set up individual fixed-effect model for possible factors with provincial panel data between 2000～2007 years to make the empirical quantitative test.The results show that the effect of gross domestic product on residents＇ consumption rate is U-typed and only Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Shandong,Canton are undergoing the turning point at present,which means the future regional economic development in these areas will probably facilitate the promotion of consumption rate.The relatively low share of labor revenue which is continuously dropping also has great influence on low consumption rate.In order to raise the consumption rate,speeding up the transformation of economic development mode effectively and promoting the rise of the labor share are two prerequisite.

关 键 词：居民消费率 个体固定效应模型 劳动者报酬份额 地区经济发展水平 

分 类 号：F047.3[经济管理—政治经济学]