基于可计算一般均衡模型的张掖市水资源调控模拟研究  

Study and Simulation on Water Resources Regulation in Zhangye City Based on CGE Model

作　　者：王勇[1,2] 肖洪浪[2] 邹松兵[2] 李彩芝[2] 任娟[2] 陆明峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,山东烟台264003 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所生态水文与流域科学重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2010年第6期959-966,共8页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"基于GIS的黑河流域典型植物种潜在分布研究"(40801021);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项子课题"黑河流域水生态功能一级二级分区研究"(2008ZX07526-002-05)

摘　　要：引入可计算一般均衡模型作为张掖市水资源调控研究的基础工具,模拟计算了张掖市将种植业部门生产规模和产品输出调控在不同水平时的社会经济运行情况。结果表明:现有生产条件下,缩减种植业部门产品的生产或向外输出均有利于国民经济生产中水资源的优化配置,并促进张掖市社会经济的发展;相对于控制种植业部门的生产规模来说,控制种植业部门产品的向外输出水平不仅能使张掖市取得更好的社会经济效益,而且还能从经济生产用水中节约出7 746.82×104m3的水资源,可用于张掖市社会经济生活的消耗或黑河流域中下游的生态环境建设。As a powerful tool for policy analysis, the Compu been introduced to study the regulation of water resources in table General Equilibrium Model has Zhangye City. Based on this model, the study has simulated the changes of the operation of Zhangye economy as the production scale and products exportation of planting sector were controlled in different levels. It is shown that the restriction of the planting sector＇ s production scale and products exportation under current existing production conditions would be helpful to the allocation of water resources and the development of socio-economy in Zhangye City. However, compared to the restriction of the planting sector＇s production scale, restriction of the planting sector＇ s products exportation could make Zhangye achieve better socio-economic benefits and ecological effects. The calculated results show that the limitation of the products exportation of planting sector would not only increase regional production, Gross Domestic Product and employment, but also save 77.5 million m^3 of water from the regional production process, which could be used for the consumption of social life or construction of environment in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin.

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡模型 水资源 种植业 产品生产 产品输出 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]