台风作用下核电站海岸防护标准的概率分析  

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

作　　者：刘德辅[1] 韩凤亭[1] 庞亮[1] 王风清[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期140-146,共7页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50679076)资助

摘　　要：随着全球气候变暖和海平面上升,台风发生的频次和强度呈逐年增大的趋势。由台风引发的灾害及带来的后果促使人们必须重新评估核电站的海岸防护标准。文中对核电安全规定中的"可能最大台风"(Probable Maximum Typhoon)、"可能最大暴潮"(Probable Maximum Storm Surge)、"设计基准洪水"(Design Basic Flood)进行了概率分析,并用"双层嵌套多目标概率模式"(DLNMPM)对设计规范计算结果进行了修正。With the global warming and sea level rising, it is widely recognized the increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequencies and intensity. The increasing typhoon disaster and severe consequences lead us to make a design code calibration of coastal defenses against typhoon attacks on nuclear power plant. This paper discussed the reasonability of definitions about ＂Probable Maximum Typhoon＂, ＂Proba- ble Maximum Storm Surge＂ in nuclear safety regulations of China. And made some design code calibration by our proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-Objective Probability Models.

关 键 词：台风 核电站 海岸工程 规范修正 双层嵌套多目标概率模式 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]