陕西果业基地伏旱指数及其预报方法  

Research on index of arid dog days and forecasting method in Shaanxi major fruit cultivating towns

作　　者：刘璐[1] 栗珂[1] 柴芊[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,西安710015

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第3期382-386,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：2010年中国气象局业务建设项目"陕西林果气象服务业务系统建设"

摘　　要：选取陕西苹果(梨)生产基地县中生态环境、气候特点与苹果(梨)产业发展水平具有代表性的10个台站,近40 a(1969—2008年)伏期降水量和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其伏旱指数。将伏旱指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱五个等级,并用典型k阶自回归AR(k)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明:伏旱指数能够较客观地反映基地县的伏旱强度,且伏旱指数的时空分布特征差异较大。这与这些基地县所处纬度、海拔高度、生态环境和气候背景的差异有关。典型k阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在70%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。Using precipitation data and the number of days without rainfall in arid dog days during near 40a（1969—2008） from 10 representative stations in Shaanxi major apple（pear） cultivating towns,which are similar in ecological environment,climate characteristics and the level of industrial development,index of arid dog days has been designed and calculated,and is divided into strongest,stronger,medium,weak and weaker five levels,on the basis of which,conducting independent sample trial by using typical k-order autoregressive AR（k） forecasting model.The basic result of this research is that index of arid dog days could objectively reflect the intensity of the summer drought,and all of them have different characteristics in spatial and temporal distribution,which is because of the different latitude,altitude,ecological environment and climate background.In addition,the accuracy and the basic accuracy of typical K-order autoregressive forecasting model is about 70%,indicating that the effect of this forecasting model is still good and has practical value.

关 键 词：伏旱指数 自回归模式 预测 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]