基于实物期权的海外矿业投资柔性决策模型  

Study on the overseas mining investment decision based on real option and flexibility theory

作　　者：赖亮光[1,2] 郑明贵[3] 袁怀雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]江西省国土资源厅,江西南昌330002 [3]江西理工大学,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2010年第6期1050-1054,共5页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB08B01)

摘　　要：研究了海外矿业投资项目动态净现值及其柔性价值的确定,建立了基于盖斯克模型的改变运营规模的复合期权价值计算模型,并以我国某钢铁企业集团收购南非A公司铬矿及铬铁项目为例进行了计算与分析。结果表明:所建立的模型为海外矿业投资决策提供了一种较好的思路与方法。The calculations of dynamic present value and flexible value on overseas mining investment project were studied.a compound option model based on Geske model was built up supposing the production scale can be changed twice.Finally the model was interpreted with a case of South African chrome mining project merged by a Chinese steel enterprise.The results indicate that the models can provide a better solving method for overseas mining investment.

关 键 词：矿业 投资决策 实物期权 经济评价 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]