应用圆形分布方法探讨盐源县家鼠型肾综合征出血热发病的季节性  

Application of circular distribution statistical method to analyze the seasnnality of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HERS) in Yanyuan County

作　　者：张甫国[1] 陈先美[1] 张建华[1] 卫大英[1] 南磊[1] 张正纯[1] 毛玉华[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省凉山彝族自治州疾病预防控制中心,615000

出　　处：《临床合理用药杂志》2010年第11期34-35,共2页Chinese Journal of Clinical Rational Drug Use

摘　　要：目的探讨盐源县家鼠型肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病的季节性,为防治提供科学依据。方法应用圆形分布统计方法首先分析11年内的发病是否有1个平均角存在,在此基础上求出各年的平均角仭,标准差s、显示集中趋势的r值,作圆形分布的F检验,求高峰发病月(日)和95%的可信区间。结果盐源县HFRS发病有明显的季节性。病例集中在每年的2～10月,高峰发病日期的95%可信区间为1月27日-8月16日。发病率<30/10万和>100/10万的年份经统计无季节性(P>0.05)。结论在冬季开展消灭宿主动物和预防注射将起到较好的预防效果。Objective To discuss whether there is an incidence season of the mus musculus type of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HERS） in Yanyuan County,and to provide a scientific basis to control the disease.Methods Circular distribution statistical methods firstly required to analyze whether there was an average angle and the central tendency of related coefficient value,for circular distribution of F-test,seeked the peak incidence of time 95% of the CI in 11 years.Results The seasonal incidence was significant.Most of the cases occurs during February to October every year,from the date of the peak incidence of 95% confidence interval for January 27 to August 16.There was no significant seasonal variations in the yearly statistics whose incidence rate was less than 30/10 millions and higher than 100/10 millions（P0.05）.Conclusion It is that eradication of the host animal and vaccination are more efficient preventive effect in winter.

关 键 词：圆形分布 家鼠型 肾综合征出血热 季节性 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]