盈余持续性与政策监管经济后果——非经常性损益信息披露的影响分析  

Earnings Persistence and the Regulatory Effect of the CSRC Policy of Disclosing Non-recurring Items

作　　者：孟焰[1] 袁淳[1] 高雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《中国会计与财务研究》2010年第1期1-63,共63页China Accounting and Finance Review

基　　金：本文系孟焰教授主持的国家自然科学基金项目“非经常性损益会计规范研究：会计要素体系与会计报表分层模式的重构”（项目批准号：70672065）的阶段性成果.作者感谢中央财经大学“211工程”三期资助项目的支持,感谢第二届中国青年学者会计学术研讨会暨2009年中国会计、管理、财务专题学术研讨会交流过程中南京大学沈永建博士生及2009年中国会计与财务研究国际研讨会交流过程中南京大学李翔博士的有益评论;感谢匿名审稿人和执行编辑吴东辉博士提出的宝贵修改意见.

摘　　要：结合中国证券市场中关于非经常性损益信息披露的监管规则变迁，本文考察了非经常性损益信息披露对盈余属性的影响。研究发现：上市公司表外披露非经常性损益信息这一强制规定，有助于表内线下项目持续性与预测能力的正确表达，并在一定程度上有助于降低上市公司线下项目的盈余管理；当上市公司所披露的非经常性损益信息与线下项目方向一致且能够提供增量信息时，更有助于该政策发挥监管效果；通过对比不同盈余分层模式下的盈余属性，按持续性分层更有利于暂时性盈余预测能力的恰当反映。本文从监管的角度为非经常性损益信息披露政策运行的有效性提供了经验证据，有助于厘定我国上市公司的盈余持续性及预测能力，从而为进一步研究具有不同持续性的盈余信息对市场股票价格的作用机制奠定基础。This paper presents an empirical study of non-recurring items in earnings persistence the role of the CSRC policy of disclosing and predictability, as well as how it works. After analysing the earnings of listed companies within one phase from 1996 to 1998 and another from 2000 to 2004, we find that in the first phase, below-the-line items show great positive persistence and positive predictive ability, which we call a persistence and prediction anomaly. But it is possible that the CSRC regulation on disclosing nonrecurring items would help reduce the persistence and predictability of below-theline items, especially for companies with earnings management. We also discover that improper disclosure of non-recurring items compared with below-the-line items does not eliminate the prediction anomaly or improve earnings quality. Furthermore, invalid disclosure produces another anomaly, namely the negative predictability of below-theline items, which lessens the regulatory effect of the related CSRC disclosure policy. Finally, we compare the predictability of earnings in different disclosure modes for disaggregating earnings and find that the mode of differentiating core earnings between non-recurring earnings better shows the predictive ability of earnings. In a word, the research in this paper will not only help investors better understand the earnings quality of listed companies in China, but also benefit regulators in evaluating the current system of information disclosure.

关 键 词：非经常性损益 线下项目 盈余属性 政策监管 

分 类 号：F230[经济管理—会计学] F275[经济管理—国民经济]