优选概率权重训练法预报西太平洋副高脊线位置  

The Position prediction of Subtropical High Ridge over the Western Pacific Ocean Using Optimum Error Probability Weight Training Method

作　　者：张菊芳[1] 沈树勤[1] 韩桂荣[1] 严明良[1] 刘新[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台

出　　处：《气象》1999年第2期19-22,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：选用概率权重训练方法，对西太平洋副高脊线位置的多种预报方法进行历史和近时段预报误差概率的分析，动态选取最优预报进行递归集成。结果表明集成后的脊线预报位置误差减小，与实况对比，预报效果较好。A probability weight training method was used to analyze the prediction error ratio of some forecasting methods for the position of subtropical high ridge over the western Pacific Ocean both in history and real time. A best prediction method was set up with integrated method step by step. It showed that the error of the prediction of subtropical high ridge was reduced after integration compared with another forecasting method.

关 键 词：优选 概率权重 集成预报 副高脊线 太平洋 气压 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学] P454