前兆异常与地震相关性评价中的不确定性——VAN方法讨论引起的思考  

Uncertainties in the Evaluations of Correlations of Precursory Anomalies with Earthquakes:Ponderation of the Discussions on VAN Method

作　　者：Zheng Zhaobi (Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province,Hefei,230031) 

机构地区：[1]安徽省地震局

出　　处：《国际地震动态》1999年第2期13-19,共7页Recent Developments in World Seismology

基　　金：地震科学联合基金

摘　　要：从国际地震界关于ＶＡＮ方法预测效能引发的大辩论出发，讨论了在前兆异常与地震相关性评价中的不确定性问题。在对前兆与地震相关性进行统计检验时，涉及到对地震孕育、发展和前兆基础的理论研究及认识，以及将预测转换成具体操作程序时遇到的许多不确定性问题。文中对这些不确定性逐一进行了介绍。“地震界需要一套评估地震预报方法的基本方案”是在辩论后达成的共识，亦应成为中国学者的一项重要研究内容。Proceeding from the debate on the predicting validity of the VAN method among international seismological units,the uncertainties in the evaluations of correlations of precursory anomalies with earthquakes are discussed In statistical tests of correlations of precursory anomalies with earthquakes,the theoretical researches and understandings about the seismogeny,development and precursory base of earthquakes,as well as many matters of uncertainty in transforming prediction into specific operational sequence are involved These uncertainties are introduced one by one in this paper After the debate,a common understanding has been reached that“a fundamental scheme is needed by the seismological units to evaluate earthquake prediction methods ”This should be an important research subject for Chinese scientists as well

关 键 词：前兆异常 相关性 统计检验 地震前兆 VAN法 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]