基于三角模糊数截集的联系数模型在城市涝灾影响等级评价中的应用  

Set pair analysis model based on triangle fuzzy intervals and its application to impact rating evaluation of urban flood

作　　者：吴开亚[1] 金菊良[2] 潘争伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,上海200433 [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [3]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水利学报》2010年第6期711-719,共9页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70771035);中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题(LPM2008018);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAB14B02)

摘　　要：在一般系统等级评价中通常把评价样本值与标准等级之间的关系作为实数之间数值接近性进行评价,这易产生系统偏差。为克服这一不足,本文将三角模糊数与集对分析方法相耦合,建立了基于三角模糊数截集的联系数评价模型,并应用于湖南省29个城市的涝灾影响等级评价中。结果表明:除少数城市外,大部分城市的涝灾影响等级总体上较高。本文模型不仅给出了评价指标的具体等级,所得的评价等级为一置信区间,评价结果更符合实际情况,而且还可以根据区间数的期望-方差排序法对评价结果进行综合排序,确定评价结果的优劣次序。该模型在自然灾害综合评价中具有推广应用价值。A set pair analysis model based on the cut set number of triangular fuzzy intervals was developed as a new approach to evaluate the impact ratings of urban flood.A pilot study of 29 cities in Hunan province of China was taken as an example.The result shows that the method not only can present the ranking of evaluating indicators,but also demonstrate the evaluating rank as a confidence interval.Besides,according to the expectation and square difference method for priorities of interval numbers,the evaluated results can be sorted comprehensively and its sequence between good and bad level can be determined.So the set pair analysis model can be widely applied to comprehensive ranking evaluation of different natural disasters.

关 键 词：城市涝灾 影响等级评价 集对分析 三角模糊数 模糊数截集 区间数排序 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]