基于实物期权的光伏并网发电项目成本补偿策略研究  

Research on Cost-recovery Policy for Grid-connected PV Project Based on the Real Option

作　　者：钟渝[1,2] 刘名武[3] 马永开[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,四川成都610054 [2]四川省电力公司阿坝公司,四川阿坝614400 [3]重庆交通大学管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2010年第3期68-74,共7页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-05-0811);国家自然科学基金资助项目(60727642)

摘　　要：为加快光伏并网发电市场化运营,培育战略性新型产业,政府对光伏并网发电总投资给予补助。本文基于实物期权理论,在成本和上网电价不确定的情况下,研究光伏并网发电项目投资补偿问题。首先讨论发电企业的最佳投资时机并分析了成本补偿政策对发电企业投资决策的影响。然后,分析了最佳投资时机的可达性,得出成本补偿政策实施成功的必要条件。最后,基于等待投资的时间长度,导出了政府成本补偿比例,进一步总结出政府的成本补偿策略。To speed up the grid-connected solar power generation market-oriented operation and to cultivate strategic new industry,the Government will compensate the grid-connected PV project based on the total project investment.By the real option theory,this paper researches the investment and the cost-recovery policy in the grid-connected photovoltaic power generation projects under the uncertainty of the cost and the on-grid price.First,the best investment timing for the power generation enterprises and the effect of the cost-recovery policy on investment strategy are derived.Second,the accessibility of the best investment opportunities is discussed,and a necessary condition for the successful implementation of the cost-recovery policy is also obtained.Finally,we get the cost-recovery ratio under the expected waiting time for investing,and furthermore,conclude the cost-recovery policy for the government.

关 键 词：光伏并网发电 实物期权 成本补偿 不确定性 可达性 

分 类 号：F227.63[经济管理—国民经济]