台商投资、两岸贸易与经济增长——对于两岸经济相互依存性的系统度量  

Taiwan Investment in China's Mainland,Cross-strait Trade and Economic Growth——A Systematic Measurement for Cross-strait Economic Interdependence

作　　者：王华[1] 唐永红[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2010年第6期38-44,共7页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(07CJL024);国家社科基金项目(09BJL057)

摘　　要：对于两岸经济相互依存性的度量,既要考虑台商投资和两岸贸易对于经济的贡献程度,也应考虑两岸经济增长之间的协同与互动机理。基于向量误差修正模型(VECM)框架的协整分析与Granger因果关系检验结果表明:台商投资、两岸贸易与两岸经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,投资与贸易已成为推动两岸经济增长的重要因素,两岸经济增长间的协动路径已经初现端倪,昭示未来合作共赢的空间;短期内,台湾经济增长对于大陆经济增长则具有单向因果关系,并且两岸经贸交流对于两岸经济增长的边际效应都具有递减倾向。A systematic measurement for cross-strait economic interdependence needs to consider not only the economic contribution of Taiwan investment in China's Mainland and cross-strait trade,but also the co-movement and interaction mechanism of cross-strait economic growth.Based on the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test from a vector error correction model（VECM）,the paper argues that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between Taiwan investment,cross-strait trade,and cross-strait economic growth.However,there is only a one-way causal link between the economic growth of Taiwan and that of China's Mainland in the short run,and there is a descending trend in marginal utility between cross-strait trade and economic exchange and crossstrait economic growth.

关 键 词：台商投资 两岸贸易 经济增长 经济依存性 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]