东亚新兴经济体对外直接投资的贸易效应研究  

Trade Effects of East Asian Emerging Economies' Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：张海波[1] 闫国庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江万里学院商学院,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2010年第6期66-70,共5页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：浙江省教育科学规划项目(SCG378)

摘　　要：文章选取东亚新兴经济体九个国家(地区)为样本,利用1985～2008年的面板数据,借助面板协整模型与误差修正模型,研究东亚新兴经济体对外直接投资的贸易效应,结果表明:从长期看东亚新兴经济体对外直接投资对进出口贸易具有创造效应,但短期内却具有替代效应。从因果关系看,无论长期还是短期两者互为格兰杰原因。从具体国家(地区)看,对外直接投资对每个样本国家(地区)的进出口贸易都具有创造效应,但贸易弹性差异较大。This paper selects nine countries（regions） from East Asian emerging economies as samples,and uses the 1985-2008 panel data,panel cointegration model and error correction model to explore the trade effects of East Asian emerging economies＇ outward foreign direct investment.The research finds that：the foreign direct investment of East Asian emerging economies has a complementary effect on their import and export trade in the long run while there is a substitution effect in the short run,but Granger causes exist between them either in the long run or in the short run.As far as a specific country（region） is concerned,foreign direct investment has a complementary effect on the import and export trade of each sampled country,but the elasticity of trade has a great difference.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 贸易效应 东亚新兴经济体 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]