结构性失衡、内需不振、过时的土地制度和走出困局之路  

Structural Imbalance,Depressed Internal Demand,Outdated Land System,and the Way Out from the Dilemma

作　　者：文贯中[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学高等研究院,200433 [2]美国三一学院经济系

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2010年第2期17-27,共11页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：由于全球性的国际收支失衡,世界性经济结构的调整已经变得越来越无法回避。在这种时刻,中国依赖出口的增长模式已明显无法持续。面对外需增长的下降,中国急需提振内需。然而,中国现行的土地制度已经造成两种结构性扭曲。第一种扭曲表现为中国未能在农业比重急剧下降的同时相应减少农村人口的比重,造成城市化的严重滞后和城乡收入差的恶化。第二种扭曲表现为中国未能将其服务业的就业比重提高到世界的平均水平,造成农村的普遍隐性失业和集聚效应的浪费。中国必须改革其土地制度以降低高昂的城市化成本,才能提振内需,走上可持续增长道路。As the global economic restructuring dictated by the global monetary imbalance is looming larger, it becomes clear that the current growth model adopted by China that so heavily relies on exports cannot sustain. As the growth rate of external demand falls, it is all the more imperative for China to boost its domestic demand. However, China＇s existing land system have caused two types of structural distortion. The first distortion lies in the failure to lower the rural share in total population when its agricultural share in GDP falls sharply, resulting in significantly delayed urbanization and worsening rural--urban income gap.The second distortion lies in the failure to raise the share of its service sector in total employment to world average, resulting in rampant disguised unemployment and waste of agglomeration effect..China needs to find a way to thoroughly reform its land system to lower its prohibitively high urbanization cost before it can raise its domestic demand and switch to a sustainable growth path.

关 键 词：内需 结构性扭曲 城市化 土地制度 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]