金融结构深化、适度市场规模与最优经济增长——基于资本形成动态博弈路径的理论分析与经验证据  

Financial Structure Deepening,Moderate Market Size and Optimal Economic Growth—Based on the Dynamic Game Analysis on the Path of Capital Formation and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：罗文波[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学商学院,200241

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2010年第2期98-116,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：以金融发展的目的是服务于实体经济为出发点,从资本形成与积累的角度,分析金融深化过程中金融资本和实体资本积累与形成之间的动态博弈关系,指出金融发展与金融体系适度规模必须与实体经济相对应。金融发展过快,会产生金融资本的过度形成现象,对实体经济发展的资本积累产生明显的"挤出效应"。为了从经验上获得支持,本文利用51个国家的1990—2008年的样本数据进行检验,证实了理论分析的正确性。实证结果显示:发展中国家金融发展边际效用为正,金融深化可以显著促进经济增长;发达资本市场国家最近10年金融深化过度的迹象明显,金融发展过快挤出了经济增长的空间。之后,对这一问题的原因进行了剖析与解释,强调金融深化过程中要注重金融资本形成质量而不仅仅是规模。Based on the view the purpose of financial development is for the real economics, the paper points that the scale of the finance system should be suit with the real economics. If the finance system develops too quick compared with real economics, it maybe cause ＂Crowding-out Effect＂ on the accumulation of real capital during the economic development. For the support, data from 51 countries during the period 1990-2008 provide the point from theory analysis. The empirical study also shows the marginal utility of finance development in developing countries is positive; the finance system appeared deepened excessively problem in developed capital market countries during the latest 10 years, which forced out the economic growth space. The paper gives explanation for above, with pointing out that we should pay attention not only to the finance system scale but also the formed capital quality.

关 键 词：金融结构 动态博弈 资本形成 挤出效应 金融深化过度 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F830