基于分解模型的人均GDP地区间差异分析——从空间角度  

Analysis Based on Decomposition Model of Per Capita GDP′s Inter-regional Differences——From the View of Space

作　　者：彭薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学区域经济与城市经济研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《管理科学》2010年第3期96-102,共7页Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：根据Meliciani对人均GDP的研究,将人均GDP的构成因素分解为劳动生产率、就业率、劳动参与率和劳动年龄结构4个指标,将中国31个省份各指标的横截面方差分解为3个地区组内方差和组间方差,运用各省人口规模占全国人口规模的比重作为权重进行评估。研究结果表明,尽管3个地区的劳动生产率差距在缩小,就业率地区间差距也在缩小,但人均GDP差距仍在不断扩大,劳动参与率和劳动年龄结构的地区间分布变化的异动是推进地区间人均GDP差异扩大的主要驱动力。针对劳动参与率与人均GDP、劳动生产率、就业率的不同步发展,利用空间计量方法,把地区间影响分解为相邻省份、同一地区内省份之间和不同地区省份之间的影响3个因素,结果表明劳动参与率的省份间变动主要存在于跨地区的相邻省份间,而人均GDP则受同一地区内相邻省份的影响。地区间人均GDP差距之所以不断扩大,劳动力的跨地区流动是重要的影响因素之一,劳动力的跨地区流动甚至影响地区间劳动年龄结构的差异。Based on the decomposition model of MELICIANI,We divide per capita GDP into four constituent elements,labor productivity,employment rate,labor force participation rate and the age structure,and decompose the country′s 31 provinces into three zones and groups,using the proportion of provincial population to country′s total population size as the weight for evaluation.We found that the gap of per capita GDP between the three areas is still growing,even though the gap of labor productivity and the employment rate between the three areas are narrowing.Moreover,the regional distribution change of labor force participation rate and population age structure are the main driving force to expand regional differences in per capita GDP.As labor participation rate and per capita GDP,labor productivity,employment rate′s non-synchronous development,we used spatial econometric method to decompose the inter-regional impact into three factors： adjacent areas,the same area and neighboring regions in the same area,and found that inter-regional labor force participation rate movements mianlyexists in adjacent areas across the zone,whereas per capita GDP is subject to the adjacent region within the same zone.In conclusion,the inter-zone movements of labor force is an important factor expanding regional per capita GDP disparities,in addition,the inter-zone movement of labor force even affects the inter-regional differences in the population age structure.

关 键 词：人均GDP 劳动生产率 就业率 劳动参与率 空间自相关 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]