郑州雷电发生的环境场特征及潜势预报  

The Favorable Environment Characteristics and the Potential Forecast of Lightning in Zhengzhou

作　　者：张霞 王新敏 王全周[2] 范学锋[2] 刘和平[3] 王玉岗 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象局,郑州450003 [3]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [4]河南省荥阳市气象局,荥阳450100

出　　处：《气象》2010年第6期95-100,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：河南省气象局"河南省雷电潜势预报系统及预警技术研究"(Z200703)课题资助

摘　　要：利用郑州站雷暴日观测资料,分析了郑州雷电活动的气候特征;使用2004—2006年郑州站探空资料计算了强天气威胁指数、最有利抬升指数等环境参数,分别探讨了单个环境参数和多个环境参数组合与郑州雷电天气之间的相关性。结果表明:(1)单个环境参数在一定的取值范围内与雷电活动具有相关性,但不能完全反映雷电活动特征;(2)多参数综合可在一定程度上反映雷电活动的特征,雷电活动出现的几率随着有利环境参数的个数增多而显著增大。应用多元线性回归方法建立了郑州雷电概率潜势预报方程,方程通过了α=0.05的显著性水平检验;采用郑州地区ADTD闪电监测资料对2008年6-8月业务试运行结果进行评估,雷电概率预报的TS评分达到63.6%。该方法的建立为郑州市雷电天气的预报提供了客观、定量的参考依据。Based on the observed thunderstorm data of Zhengzhou,the climatic characteristics of lightning are analyzed.And based on the sounding data from 2004 to 2006,the environment parameters such as Sweat index,the best lifting index,the 850 hPa pseudo-equivalent potential temperature and so on are calculated. The correlations between the single environment parameter and lightning weather in Zhengzhou, as well as correlations between compound parameters and lightning weather have been studied respectively. The result shows that：（1） the single environment parameter has good relationship to the lightning activity when taking value in some extent,but can not reflect the lightning characteristics totally.（2） Multiparameters can reflect the characteristics of lightning activity to some extent.The equation of lightning probability potential forecast is constructed by using multi-dimensional linear regression,and the significance test ofα=0.05 is passed.Using the lightning observed data,the operational results from June to August in 2008 are assessed,and the TS score of the probability forecast reaches 63.6%.The method provides the objective and quantitative reference to the forecast of lightning in Zhengzhou.

关 键 词：雷电特征 环境参数 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P427.321[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]