我国贸易顺差的根源及外需的可替代性——基于贸易品—非贸易品的分析框架  

THE ROOT OF CHINA'S TRADE SURPLUS AND ITS SUBSTITUTABILITY:AN ANALYSIS BASED ON TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

作　　者：于春海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2010年第6期17-23,共7页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：中国人民大学“985”工程“中国经济研究哲学社会科学创新基地”项目

摘　　要：本文在开放宏观经济的平衡关系中引入产品的可贸易性差异,探讨我国贸易顺差的根源以及外需的可替代性。研究结果表明,(1)我国国内总供给结构偏向于贸易品,国内总需求结构偏向于非贸易品,两者之间不断扩大的差距是贸易顺差不断增长的根本原因;(2)非贸易品供给不足所导致的"强制储蓄"现象,制约了我国居民消费需求的增长,使其无法有效替代外需;(3)给定国内供给和需求的结构性特征,外需增加是国内投资增加的必要条件,投资需求无法替代外需;(4)为了实现总需求构成的重新平衡,特别是提升国内消费需求在总需求中的比重,不能简单地依赖总需求管理政策或收入分配政策,必须配合以促进供给结构调整的政策措施。This paper investigates the root of China＇s trade surplus and its substitutability under the equilibrium of open macroeconomy. The main difference from previous analyses is that the structure of tradable and non-tradable goods is introduced into the equilibrium. The results include. （1） the root of China＇s trade surplus is that the ratio of non-tradable to tradable in domestic demand is larger than the ratio in domestic production; （2） the relative deficiency of non-tradable goods results in forced saving of household, which restricts the growth of domestic consumption; （3） given the structure of domestic demand and pro- duction, foreign demand cannot substitute domestic investment; （4） to rebalance the constitution of China＇s aggregate demand, especially to increase the ratio of domestic consumption, the policy of income distribution must be complemented by the policy of structure adjusting.

关 键 词：贸易顺差 贸易品 非贸易品 外需的可替代性 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]