基于线型选择不确定性的水文频率分析——以黄河某站洪水资料为例  

Hydrological frequency analysis based on uncertainty of linear selection——A case study of flood data from a station on the Yellow River

作　　者：戴荣[1] 王正发[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水电顾问集团西北勘测设计研究院,西安710065

出　　处：《西北水电》2010年第3期1-3,共3页Northwest Hydropower

摘　　要：根据贝叶斯理论和贝叶斯因子法,计算样本隶属于某种线型的后验概率;然后,根据全概率公式,以样本隶属于某种线型的后验概率为权重,对各线型的概率密度函数进行加权平均,得到综合各线型的概率密度函数,进而给出各设计频率的设计值。最后,采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型和对数皮尔逊Ⅲ型作为备选线型对黄河某站洪水资料进行水文频率分析,结果表明:①从线型后验概率估计分析,对研究的样本系列,皮尔逊Ⅲ型稍优于对数皮尔逊Ⅲ型;②可以给出考虑线型选择不确定性的设计值,以此减少线型选择的不确定性。According to Bayesian theory and Bayes Factor, the posterior probability of the calculation sample belonging to a model is calculated. This paper gives the design probability values by weighing individual probability density function based on the total probability formula. Finally, a case study of flood data from a certain station on the Yellow River is discussed, and the result indicates that P-Ⅲ distribution is slightly superior to LP-Ⅲ distribution; and the design values based on uncertainty of linear selection may be given.

关 键 词：贝叶斯理论 贝叶斯因子法 全概率公式 水文频率分析 线型选择不确定性 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]