中国省际资本边际报酬估算  

The Estimation of MPK Using Chinese Provincial Data

作　　者：郭熙保[1] 罗知[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济系

出　　处：《统计研究》2010年第6期71-77,共7页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(06AJL001,07AJL006);国家自科基金项目(70673074,70703026)的资助

摘　　要：资本边际报酬是决定投资和资本配置的重要因素。本文利用中国省际宏观数据,估算了1990-2006年中国各省的资本边际报酬。结果显示,我国各省、自治区、直辖市的资本边际报酬呈现出东部沿海地区较高,而中西部地区较低的状况。同时,部分较落后地区的资本边际报酬不断增加,甚至已经超过了大部分沿海省份,而沿海省份的资本边际报酬增长趋势不再明显,很多省份呈现持平甚至下降趋势。这一结果说明,我国固定资本投资极不平衡的现象与中国省际的资本边际报酬估算结果是一致的,但是根据资本边际报酬的变化趋势,该问题在今后或许可以得到缓解。The marginal product of capital （MPK） is an important factor that affect the investment of fixed capital. This paper estimates the MPK in 24 provinces in China from 1990 to 2006. We find that,the MPK is much higher in coastal regions than in the inland regions. This result coincides with the unbalanced distribution of fixed capital in China. But we also find,the MPK in some inland provinces grows faster,in contrast,the rising trend of MPK in coastal region is no longer obvious. It may predict that the problem of unbalanced distribution of fixed capital in China would relieve or even disappear in the future.

关 键 词：资本边际报酬 固定资本投资 宏观数据 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]