收入水平、收入结构与中国农村妇女生育意愿——基于CHNS数据的实证分析  

Income Level、Income Structure and the Childbearing Intention of Chinese Rural Women:An Empirical Study Based on CHNS Data

作　　者：潘丹[1] 宁满秀[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]福州大学公共管理学院,福建福州350002 [3]福建农林大学经济管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《南方人口》2010年第3期45-50,共6页South China Population

基　　金：中国博士后基金项目(项目编号:20090450827)的阶段性研究成果之一

摘　　要：利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)2006年的数据,本文采用负二项回归方法考察了农村经济发展带来的收入水平和收入结构的变化对妇女生育意愿的影响。结果表明,当加入收入结构变量后,家庭持久总收入对妇女期望孩子数的负向影响显著地降低,而且相比于收入水平,收入结构在妇女的生育意愿中扮演着更为重要的角色。因而在未来人口政策的制定过程中,除了不断强调提高农民收入外,也要进一步采取各种措施促进我国农村劳动力的转移,提高农民的非农收入比重,这对于农村生育意愿的转变至关重要。Based on the data from China Health and Nutrition Surveys （CHNS） in 2006, this paper employs negative binomial regression model to analyze the impact of income level and income structure on the childbearing intention of Chinese rural women.The results show that the total long term income can obviously decrease the desired number of childbearing of Chinese rural women when the income structure is considered, moreover compared with the income level, income structure plays a more important role in the childbearing intention. Therefore the future population policy＇s should not only consider the rural＇ income enhancement but also the measures to support the rural labors shift into non-agricultural sectors and raise the proportion of their non-agricultural income, which is critical to the change of Chinese rural women＇s childbearing intention.

关 键 词：家庭持久总收入 收入结构 期望孩子数 负二项回归 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]