城市原水污染事故危害度应急评价模型  

A Model for Harm Impact Evaluation of Crude Water Pollution Accident

作　　者：朱明[1] 李永[1] 李嘉[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《土木建筑与环境工程》2010年第3期124-132,共9页Journal of Civil,Architectural & Environment Engineering

基　　金：四川省科技厅科技支撑项目(2008SZ0158)

摘　　要：对湖库水源地及明渠取水型城市原水系统污染事故的"危害度"评价进行探讨。归纳分析"危害度"的直接与间接影响因素;应用粗糙集理论与方法,对间接影响因素进行重要度分析与冗余约简;综合直接与间接影响因素,构建城市原水污染事故"危害度"的应急评价模型;引用Vague集相似度量方法对模型中的主要直接影响因素"浓度超标系数"的模糊渐变性进行度量。以成都市原水系统为应用背景,设计湖库硝基苯污染事故模拟工况,依据所构建模型计算各工况"危害度"值,并通过敏感性分析方法,对该模型的合理、有效性进行分析验证。结果表明,所构建模型能够综合反映湖库水源地及明渠取水型城市原水系统的污染事故对城市水厂及饮用水安全的危害影响程度。The harm impact evaluation was studied for pollution accident happened in urban crude water system characterized of fetching crude water from reservoir through channel. The relevant direct and indirect factors to harm impact of crude water pollution accident were analyzed. Furthermore, the attribute reduction method in rough set theory was applied to eliminate the redundancy of indirect factors. Integrating the direct and indirect factors effects, an emergent evaluation model for the Harm-Impact was established with the similarity analysis by vague sets theory. Taking crude water system in Chengdu as a case study, a designed nitrobenzene pollution accident was simulated in different working-conditions. Moreover, the Harm Impact extent of the accident was calculated with the proposed model. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the proposed model is reasonable and valid in the emergent evaluation for the pollution accident happened in the urban crude water system.

关 键 词：城市原水 水污染 粗糙集 VAGUE集 评价模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]