基于故障树的油气管道泄漏模糊可靠性评估  

Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation on Oil and Gas Pipeline Leakage Based on Fault Tree

作　　者：张静[1] 樊建春[1] 温东[1] 王晓晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)油气安全工程技术研究中心 [2]中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院

出　　处：《油气储运》2010年第6期401-406,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家863计划资助;2006AA06Z238

摘　　要：基于油气管道泄漏故障树,建立了油气管道泄漏事故及其影响因素不可靠度求解模型,实现了对油气管道可靠性的定量评估。采用左右模糊排序法将代表专家意见的模糊数转化为模糊可能性分数FPS,并在整合专家意见时,引入专家权重对其进行修正。专家权重与故障树基本事件权重,是通过建立不同的模糊层次分析结构模型,依据模糊互补判断矩阵的性质确定的,并通过相容性和一致性检验,确保专家决策的可靠性。各事件的故障概率求解结果可以定量反映其对管道不发生泄漏可靠性的影响程度,据此对实际算例进行了分析。Based on fault tree of oil and gas pipelines' leakage,fallibility model for leakage accidents of oil and gas pipelines and its influence factors is established,which realizes quantitative evaluation for oil and gas pipelines.Fuzzy numbers which represent expert opinions are translated into fuzzy possibility scores by using left and right fuzzy preference relation method,and expert weights are considered to amend the formula.Through setting up different fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model and using fuzzy complementary judgment matrix,weights of experts and basic cases are determined.In addition,compatibility and consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix are tested respectively to ensure reliability of expert decision-making.Failure probabilities of incidents can quantitatively reflect influence degree of the incidents to reliability of pipelines.Calculation cases are analyzed according to the model.

关 键 词：油气管道 泄漏 故障树 可靠度 左右模糊排序法 故障概率 算例分析 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学]