高速公路网的国民经济乘数效应测算  

Calculation of National Economy Multiplier Effect of Expressway Network

作　　者：贺琼[1] 梁小威[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2010年第7期154-158,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：基于高速公路网国民经济发展乘数效应测算思路与具体步骤,采用投入产出法对无高速公路效应期、高速公路带效应期和高速公路网效应期的公路发展国民经济乘数效应进行了测算与比较。通过对相关历史数据进行有或无高速公路网差异性回归分析和回归模型有效性检验,发现指数回归模型和Logistic函数回归模型具有同等级的最小相对误差与最高显著性,可作为测度我国高速公路网国民经济乘数效应的回归增量预测模型。测算结果表明,高速公路网效应引致的国民经济发展呈快速上升趋势。Based on the calculation characteristics and steps of national economy muhiplier effect of expressway network, Calculation and comparison of national economy multiplier effect of highway development in non-expressway effective phrase, expressway zone effective phrase and expressway network effective phrase were performed by input -output analysis method. Through difference regression analysis on the related historical data and validity check of regression model, it is found that exponential regression model and Logistic function regression model have the same rank of smallest relative error and highest significance, which could be taken as the regression increase forecast model for estimating national economy multiplier effect of expressway network. The calculation result indicates that expressway network effect brings fast escalation trend of national economy development.

关 键 词：公路运输经济 国民经济效益 投入产出法 高速公路网 完全贡献乘数 

分 类 号：F540.31[经济管理—产业经济]