基于修正Verhulst模型的面板堆石坝沉降预测  

Modified Verhulst Model-based Settlement Prediction for CFRD

作　　者：邓成发[1] 戴春华[1] 周苏波[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省水利河口研究院,浙江省杭州市310020

出　　处：《水电自动化与大坝监测》2010年第3期53-56,64,共5页HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING

摘　　要：通过分析面板堆石坝沉降和Verhulst模型的特征发现,堆石体沉降随时间的变化曲线与Verhulst模型曲线形似。但是,Verhulst模型在预测沉降时,前期预测值与实测值差距较大且预测最终沉降量偏小。为了克服这一不足,提出采用修正的Verhulst模型预测堆石体的沉降,预测结果表明,修正模型可有效提高沉降预测精度,预测面板堆石坝最终的最大沉降量更为合理。After analyzing the characteristics of rockfill settlement of CFRD and the Verhulst model,it is found that the observed curves of rockfill settlement with time is quite similar with that calculated from the Verhulst model. However,there is relatively large disparity between the previously predicted values and observed ones,and the ultimate settlement predicted is relatively small. This paper proposes a modified Verhulst model to predict the rockfill settlement. The example of prediction shows that the modified Verhulst model can effectively improve the precision of settlement prediction and it is more reasonable to predict the ultimate maximum settlement.

关 键 词：面板堆石坝 沉降 预测 修正Verhulst模型 

分 类 号：TV641.43[水利工程—水利水电工程]