基于非序贯蒙特卡洛冰灾重现期线路经济性比较  

Economy comparison of line's ice disaster cycle based on non-sequential Monte Carlo

作　　者：张勇军[1] 黄慧[1] 唐捷[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东广州510640 [2]广东电网公司韶关供电局,广东韶关512026

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2010年第13期119-123,共5页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50337010);广东省自然科学基金项目(06025630)~~

摘　　要：提出一种比较不同重现期线路经济性的新算法,该算法建立关于结冰持续时间和线路分节数的失效率模型,用非序贯蒙特卡洛模拟冰灾发生与否、结冰持续时间长短和线路失效与否。通过最优潮流法计算求得线路在寿命期间的冰灾风险成本,综合初期成本和常规维修成本比较不同重现期线路的经济性。以修订的IEEE可靠性测试系统为物理模型、湖南省冰灾气候为参考气候的算例,验证了该算法的实用性及对于电力线路设计的指导意义。A new method is presented to compare the economy oflines with different ice disaster cycle, with a failure rate model about the ice disaster duration and line section number. Non-sequential Monte Carlo is adopted to simulate the happening of ice disaster, disaster duration and line＇s failure. The ice disaster risk is evaluated through optimal power flow analysis, together with initial investment and conventional repair cost, economy of lines with different ice disaster cycle can be compared. An example, with ice weather condition of Hunan province, modeled by appropriate modified IEEE reliability test system （RBTS）, proves practicability of this method, showing that the method is of great significance in line design.

关 键 词：冰灾重现期 经济性 非序贯蒙特卡洛 风险 失效率模型 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]