基于云模型的城市防震减灾能力综合评估方法  

Comprehensive Evaluation for Cities' Ability of Reducing Earthquake Disasters Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：王威[1,2] 田杰[2] 马东辉[1] 苏经宇[1] 韩阳[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [3]河南工业大学土木建筑学院,郑州450052

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2010年第6期764-770,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：国家'十一五'科技支撑计划项目资助(2006BAJ06B01;2009BAJ28B04)

摘　　要：为有效解决城市抗震减灾能力综合评估中由于一些基础资料不能被准确提供而造成分析指标和评价结果中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,提出了基于云模型理论的城市抗震减灾能力综合评估方法.云模型是一种实现定性概念和定量数值之间转换的工具,用来统一刻划基于语言值的定性概念和数值表示之间的相互映射关系.云的数字特征期望值Ex、熵En和超熵He把模糊性和随机性完全集成在一起,作为知识表示的基础.该评估算法以不确定性为出发点,在理论上借鉴了层次分析法的某些处理手段,可以较好地处理指标体系中广泛存在的泛层次树形结构现象,将其用于某城市抗震减灾能力综合评估中,评估结果可信.In order to solve the problem of lacking of accurate foundaion data which results in fuzziness and randomness in evaluating cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters,a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud models is expatiated in this paper.A new mathematical representation of qualitative concepts is represented by cloud models.With the new models,mapping between qualities and quantities becomes much easier and interchangeable.Fuzziness and randomness are integrated using digital characteristics,such as expected value Ex,entropy En and hyper entropy He.The fuzziness and randomness are not only complementary,but also inseparable.It starts with the uncertainty of the system,then the theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process for reference is used.And it makes the result of evaluation more accurate when used to analyze cities＇ ability of reducing earthquake disasters.

关 键 词：城市防震减灾能力 云模型 隶属云 正态云 综合评估 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] TP182[天文地球—固体地球物理学]