改革开放三十年政府支出对城乡居民生活水平影响效应分析——基于TVP模型的实证研究  

Analysis of the Effect of Government Expenditures on Urban and Rural Living Standards since the Chinese Reform and Openness 30 Years Ago——Based on the TVP Model of the Empirical Study

作　　者：张峁[1] 王青[1] 杨帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2010年第7期48-53,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：辽宁省财政科研基金项目(09D003);辽宁省社科基金项目(L08ATJ002);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目(2009A280)

摘　　要：基于中国1978—2008年的时间序列数据,采用时变参数(TVP)模型对我国政府支出对城乡居民生活水平的影响效应进行比较分析。由实证结果可见:政府总支出促进了我国城乡居民生活水平的提高,但对城镇的影响大于农村。分类支出上,政府行政性支出对城市居民生活水平产生正向促进作用,对农村居民生活水平产生负向作用;政府基本建设支出对城市居民先产生正向作用,但最近几年,产生一定的负影响,而对农村居民生活水平从1990年后一直产生正向作用,且对城乡居民生活水平影响有逐渐趋同趋势;政府民生性支出对城乡居民生活水平一直有正向促进作用,但对农村居民生活水平的影响要高于城市。Based on the Chinese time series data from 1978 to 2008,this paper makes use of the time-varying parameter model to compare and analyze the effect of government expenditures on urban and rural living standards.The result shows： the government total expenditures significantly prompts both urban and rural living standards,but the effect on the former is stronger.In terms of specific expenditures,the administrative expenditures has a positive effect on urban living standard,while its effect on rural living standard is negative;the infrastructure expenditures has a positive effect on urban living standard,but recently it turns to be negative,while its effect on rural living standard has been positive since 1990 and the gap between the two gradually diminishes;the expenditures on the people＇s livelihood has taken a positive effect on urban living standard since the beginning,but its effect on rural living standard is stronger.

关 键 词：改革开放 政府支出 居民生活水平 TVP 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]