地震预报实验场：科学问题与科学目标  

Earthquake prediction experiment site:design,performance evaluation,and implementation

作　　者："地震预报发展规划"工作组 刘桂萍 吴忠良 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局,北京市复兴路63号100036

出　　处：《中国地震》2010年第1期1-13,共13页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：“十二五”发展规划工作项目

摘　　要：本文简要回顾了以往地震预报实验场的经验教训,讨论了新一代地震预报实验场的实施策略。汲取汶川地震的经验启示,本文提出"地震博弈"策略,即考虑中长期地震预测的可用性与不确定性,在监测与实验系统设计中考虑地震活动和地震构造相依的区域模型。对于特定的活动断裂或活动地块边界带的潜在强震段落,设置适应多种孕震模型的"想定地震破裂",针对地震孕育的"想定模式"设计观测项目和监测系统。这一系统以地震成因和孕震模型的有效约束、"预期"前兆的有效监测、预测/预报效能的有效检验为导向。从技术角度,本文提出将地震预报实验场作为一个"大科学工程",强调复杂的多层次、多组分技术系统性能的稳健性,以及为确保与地震有效的"近距离接触"的系统可持续性。This article briefly reviews the lessons and experiences of the previously installed earthquake prediction experiment sites,and discusses on the strategies for the planning and implementation of the new generation earthquake prediction experiment sites.Learning from the lessons and experiences of the Wenchuan earthquake,one of the concepts proposed is the strategy of ＇playing games with earthquakes ＇,that is,given the usefulness and uncertainties of intermediate-term medium-range earthquake forecast,region-specific models of seismic activity and seismo-tectonics are considered in the design of the monitoring and experiment system.For a certain segment of active fault or block boundary zone which accommodates future earthquakes,a ＇rupture scenario＇is designed to provide different versions of the earthquake preparation model.Based on the earthquake preparation scenario,detection programs and monitoring systems are designed.The system is to be oriented at the effective constraint of the seismogenis model and models for earthquake preparation,the effective monitoring of ＇expected＇anomalies,and the effective test of the forecast/prediction schemes.In the perspective of technology,the experiment site is treated as a ＇big-science＇device,emphasizing the robustness of the performance of the system with complex multi-layer and multi-component structures,and the sustainable functioning of the system ensuring the effective ＇close-in contact＇with earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震预报实验场 孕震模型 为预报的监测和模拟 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]