中国干旱区气温变化对全球变暖的区域响应  

Regional Response of Temperature Change in the Arid Regions of China to Global Warming

作　　者：张雪芹[1] 孙杨[1,2] 毛炜峄[3] 刘芸芸[4] 任雨[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第4期592-599,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421300);国家自然科学基金项目(40871044)资助

摘　　要：选取中国干旱区77个气象站点1961-2007年的均一化气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了干旱区气温变化对全球变暖的区域响应。分析表明:①我国干旱区气温变化对全球变暖响应显著且具有鲜明的区域特色。1961-2007年,我国干旱区年平均气温呈明显上升趋势,约上升了1.8℃,平均气温升温速率为0.39℃/10a,增暖幅度与波动幅度高于同期全球以及中国区域平均。②我国干旱区气温变化季节与区域差异显著。各季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中秋、冬两季增温明显,冬季气温线性变化率最大,为夏季增温的两倍有余。年均温与各季升温幅度区域差异较大,其中北疆、阿拉善高原升温幅度最大,南疆与河西走廊升温相对较慢。③年均温与各季气温的年距平序列突变主要发生在20世纪80年代中期以后。研究区各站点普遍存在着16～17年的年代际变化和6～7年的年际变化。综合我国干旱区年均温距平序列及其突变时间和振荡周期,可推断出干旱区气温将会持续以较高的变暖速率上升,至少最近10年这种趋势不会改变。④我国干旱区水热相互反馈作用错综复杂,气候变暖如何影响干旱区水热相互反馈作用机制,这将是进一步研究的重点。Under global warming,there was an obvious regional differentiation of climate change all over the world in the 20th century.During the past 30 years,a wide range of global warming took place,with the most remarkable warming in the middle and higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.In the 21st century,the regional warming becomes more significant in the arid regions of China （ARC for short）,and simultaneously the occurring frequency of extreme weather events increases.Under the influence of human activities and climate change,the natural environment has changed dramatically,e.g.,oasis degradation,land desertification,glacier retreat,water shortage,increasing natural disasters and obvious contradiction of the human-land relationship.Therefore,in the paper,the regional response of temperature change to global warming is investigated by using the daily temperature data at 77 typical meteorological stations in the ARC during the period from 1961 to 2007 and the methods of linear trend estimate,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results are as follows：（1） The response of temperature change in the ARC to global warming was characterized by the significant regional difference.The mean annual air temperature in the ARC was increased by 1.8 ℃ during the period of 1961-2007,its increase rate was 0.39 ℃/10 a,which was obviously higher than the average of the globe and whole China;（2） The mean seasonal temperature in the ARC was increased more significantly in winter and autumn than that in spring and summer.There was an obvious regional difference of increases in mean annual and seasonal temperature,e.g.,the temperature was increased more significantly in north Xinjiang and the Alxa Plateau than that in south Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor;（3） The abrupt change in temperature in the ARC occurred mainly after the mid-1980s.There were the 6-7-year annual temperature fluctuation periods and 16-17-year decadal ones.It can be inferred that the temperature in the ARC will be continuously in

关 键 词：全球变暖 气温变化 区域响应 干旱区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]