用前期月环流指数预测新疆棉区稳定≥10℃初日  

Prediction of the First Day of Mean Daily Temperature ≥10 ℃ in Cotton-planting Areas of Xinjiang with Previous Circulation Index

作　　者：邹陈[1,2] 毛炜峄[3] 吉春容[1] 曹占洲[3] 李新建[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆师范大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [3]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第4期621-627,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：科技部国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B02),科技部项目(2005DIB6J113);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M20);国家自然科学基金委员会项目(40701148);中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM200805,IDM200705)共同资助

摘　　要：用新疆22个棉区代表站的日平均气温资料,计算5d滑动稳定≥10℃初日作为棉花播种的农业气象学指标。以前一年3月到当年2月的74项月环流指数为因子,考虑了统计模型中因子与预测量之间相关不稳定性,分别建立了新疆棉区22站稳定≥10℃初日的"滑动相关—逐步回归—集合分析"预测模型。预测2009年全疆大部分棉区稳定≥10℃初日偏早,北疆大部分棉区偏早5d以上。入选新疆各棉区预测模型的前期环流因子中,以副热带环流系统因子为主,其次是高纬度地区极涡环流因子;北疆棉区稳定≥10℃初日的年际变化与前期热带海洋表面温度异常分布关系较密切。对预测结果以及模型的预测(拟合)效果进行检验,2009年的预测结果基本准确,尤其是预测出了北疆大部分棉区异常偏早的趋势,为棉花播种期预测分析提供了有力的技术支持。This paper,based on the mean daily temperature data observed by 22 meteorological stations in 6 cotton-planting regions in Xinjiang during the period of 1961-2009,derives the first day of mean daily temperature ≥10 ℃ by smoothing the 5-day mean temperature,and it is regarded as the agriculture meteorological index of cotton seeding.An integrated regression prediction model of the first day of mean daily temperature ≥10 ℃ at 22 meteorological stations in the 6 cotton-planting regions is developed by using 74 index factors of atmospheric circulation from previous March to next February based on considering the instability of the correlation coefficients among the factors in the statistical model and the predicted values.The results show that the predicted first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ in 2009 was earlier than that in 2008 in the most cotton-planting regions in Xinjiang,and it was 5 days earlier in the most cotton-planting regions in north Xinjiang.Aggregately,124 index factors of previous general circulation are selected for the integrated regression prediction model.Among these selected factors,there are 112 atmospheric circulation characteristic index factors,and they account for 90.3% of the total selected factors;there are 12 atmospheric external forced fountainhead factors,and they occupy 9.7% of the total selected factors.Among atmospheric circulation characteristic index factors,the dominant factor is the subtropical zone circulation system,then the zonal index of the polar vortex over the high-latitude area,and the minimum factor is the westerly circulation system over the mid-latitude region.The annual change of the first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ in the cotton-planting regions in north Xinjiang is closely related to the temperature abnormality of tropic ocean.The predicted results show that these models all pass the test at a confidence of 0.01,and the average prediction accuracy of these models is 81.80% for the first day of mean daily temperature ≥10 ℃ in 2009.

关 键 词：棉花 稳定≥10℃初日 环流指数 滑动相关 集合分析 新疆 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]