土地利用变化对长江流域气候及水文过程影响的敏感性研究  

Sensitivity Research of the Effects of Land Use Change on Climate and Runoff over the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：曹丽娟[1] 张冬峰[2] 张勇[2] 董文杰[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《大气科学》2010年第4期726-736,共11页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目40805060;公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目"中国气候系统协同观测与预测研究"05课题03专题资助

摘　　要：使用区域气候模式(RegCM3)和大尺度汇流模型(LRM),研究土地利用/植被覆盖变化对长江流域气候及水文过程的影响。RegCM3嵌套于欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料ERA40,分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下两个各15年(1987～2001年)时间长度的积分试验。随后,RegCM3两个试验的输出径流结果分别用来驱动LRM,研究土地利用/植被覆盖变化对长江流域河川径流的影响。研究结果指出,中国当代土地利用变化对长江流域降水、蒸散发、径流深及河川径流等水文气候要素的改变较大,对气温的改变并不明显。土地利用变化引起长江干流河川径流量在夏季(6～8月)有所增加,并且越向下游增加幅度越大,其中大通站径流量增加接近15%。总体而言,土地利用改变加剧了长江流域夏季水循环过程,使得夏季长江中下游地区降水增多,径流增大。A regional climate model（RegCM3）and a large-scale routing model（LRM）are employed to investigate the effects of land use and land cover change on climate and runoff of the Yangtze River basin in China.The RegCM3 is nested within ERA40 reanalysis data.Two 15-year simulations（1987-2001）,one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention over China,are conducted.The runoff outputs of the RegCM3 simulations are used to drive the LRM to study the land use and land cover change on streamflow of the Yangtze River.The analysis shows that the current land use changes have large influences on the hydrological variables such as precipitation,evapotranspiration,surface runoff depth and streamflow,but have not evident influences on surface air temperature.The land use changes lead to increased streamflow over the main stream of the Yangtze River in summer and the increment is more in the lower reaches,while at Datong station the change rate of the streamflow is close to 15%.Overall the land use changes in the Yangtze River basin may intensify the hydrological cycle of the basin,which should increase summer precipitation and streamflow.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 区域气候模式 长江流域 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]