滇中地区作物生长旺季农业气候变化研究  

Research on Agroclimate Changes for Principal Agricultural Season in Central Yunnan

作　　者：黄中艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2010年第3期665-669,共5页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40675045)

摘　　要：为探究滇中农业气候变化规律,应用EOF、典型相关和系统聚类法,提取农业气候主成分因子,研究滇中作物生长旺季气候三要素总量、作物主要生育阶段气候及其时段匹配年型的变化。找到了相互独立、浓缩大量信息、表征农业气候特点和变化的10个主成分因子;客观提练出滇中8种农业气候时段匹配年型及其气候特点。滇中作物生长旺季降水、日照变化比气温显著;20世纪60~70年代气候变化相对平稳;90年代以来光热水总量、各阶段气候主成分因子和时段气候匹配年型变化明显加剧。分析农业气候变化及其影响,需要考虑总时段气候三要素总量和气候的时段匹配年型两方面的变化。本文对应对气候变化、农业产量预测和气候影响评价有指导作用。The paper was to discover the agroclimate change in central Yunnan and its influence.On the basis of historical climatic data from 27 observed stations,orthogonal expansion method was employed to extract staple component factors from selected initial climatic factors for four divided periods.Canonical correlation and hierarchical cluster method were used to analyze the distinguishing features of agroclimate change in central Yunnan.As result of this research,10 independent staple component factors concentrating a vast store of climatic information were found to express the agroclimate features and climate change for principal agricultural season in central Yunnan.As a whole,the rainfall and sunshine duration changed more effectively than air temperature.The fluctuation of agroclimates for each period of time remained relatively stable in 1960s and 1970s.But the values of staple component factors for agroclimates,actually arisen time-interval matching types for agroclimetes and the amount of rainfall（or sunshine duration or accumulative temperature） changed increasingly and became obviously abnormal since 1990s.8 classified model years for agroclimate matching described by 10 staple component factors were independent of the changes for the amount of rainfall and sunshine duration as well as accumulative temperature,and were an important part of the agroclimate change for central Yunnan.

关 键 词：农业气候变化 主成分分析 典型相关 系统聚类 滇中 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]