水驱开发油田高含水期综合含水率灰色理论预测  

Grey theory prediction of general water percentage in the late stage of water-flooding oil fields

作　　者：史玉成[1] 盛国青[2] 赵为永[1] 郭力军[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海油田勘探开发研究院,甘肃敦煌726302 [2]青海油田井下作业公司

出　　处：《内蒙古石油化工》2010年第10期60-61,共2页Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry

摘　　要：水驱开发油田进入高含水生产阶段,综合含水率的预测对于油田开发动态分析以及注水开发方案调整就显得尤为重要。灰色预测理论实质上是一种动态趋势预测的定量化,用于油田综合含水率变化的宏观预测所需的样本(数据、项目)数较少而可靠性较高。本文从灰色理论的基本原理入手,阐述了综合含水率变化的灰色预测模型的建立过程,并以尕斯库勒油田深层油藏为例建立了灰色预测模型。General water percentage prediction gets more and more important to the dynamic analysis of oil field development and water injection development plan adjustment,with the general water percentage of water-flood oil fields coming to a high rate.Actually,grey theory prediction is quantitative to predict the dynamic trend of oil field development,which has high reliability though we have a few samples（data,items） needed for general water percentage macro prediction of oil field.In this paper,starting with the basic principles of gray theory,the process of establishing a gray prediction model for the comprehensive changes of general water percentage is described,and a gray prediction model is established for the gasi-kule oil field as an example.

关 键 词：水驱开发 综合含水率 灰色理论 

分 类 号：TE357[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]