基于电力消费约束的投入产出表全象限动态外推方法  

Dynamic Extrapolation Approach for Full Quadrant of Input-Output Table Based on Electricity Consumption Constraint

作　　者：田建伟[1] 胡兆光[2] 吴俊勇[1] 肖潇[3] 徐敏杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044 [2]国网能源研究院,北京100052 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第3期64-68,共5页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：美国能源基金会项目(G-0601-08211)

摘　　要：提出全象限动态外推投入产出表的方法,并采用Multi-Agent建模技术实现外推。各Agent模拟经济个体的市场行为,按供需情况调整再生产直至电力消费满足目标年实际值,同时形成新的投入产出表。本文突破了基本RAS法和修正RAS法必须先已知中间投入象限行和及列和的局限性,通过由2002年投入产出表外推至2005年投入产出表的算例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。An approach of dynamic extrapolation for full quadrant of Input-Output Table is proposed,and multi-agent modeling technique is used to implement the extrapolation.Each agent simulates economic individual＇s market behavior and adjusts the reproduction based on supply and demand situation until its electricity consumption meets wity the target year＇s value,and then Input-Output Table is updated.This study breakthroughs the limitation that the row sum and column sum of the intermediate input quadrant are must known in advance by taking Fundamental RAS Approach and Modified RAS Approach,and the results of extrapolating Input-Output Table from 2002yr.to 2005yr.demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed approach.

关 键 词：投入产出表 多智能体 全象限 动态外推 电力消费约束 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]