新疆棉花热量指数的均生函数预测模型  

Mean generating function model for cotton heat index forecasting in Xinjiang

作　　者：郭建平[1] 陈玥熤[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]广东省气象局,广州510080

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2010年第8期175-179,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B02)资助

摘　　要：均生函数预测方法是开展环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对新疆不同棉区棉花热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的均生函数预测模型,各模型的平均回代精度都在95%以上,试报精度比回代精度要低,但也能满足实际使用要求,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。Generating function forecasting method is one of the effective methods to forecast changing tendency of environmental factor.On the basis of cotton heat index analysis in Xinjiang,the generating function model of cotton heat index changing tendency was set up.The mean precision of back test for each model is higher than 95%,but the mean precision of test on probation is lower than that of back test.The forecasting results can be used to instruct agricultural production.

关 键 词：新疆 棉花 热量指数 预测 均生函数模型 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]