东亚冬季风异常与ENSO事件及其预测意义  

ANOMALIES OF EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON AND ENSO AND ITS PREDICTION VALUE

作　　者：李跃清[1] 童文林[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都高原气象研究所

出　　处：《成都气象学院学报》1999年第1期14-19,共6页

摘　　要：通过东亚冬季风强度指数资料，进一步分析了东亚冬季风变化与ＥｌＮｉｎｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）之间的密切关系，１９１０～１９９０年２０次ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件，有１４次对应前期强的东亚冬季风，１５次ＬａＮｉｎａ事件，有９次对应前期弱的东亚冬季风。应用奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）技术，得到了前期东亚冬季风与后期ＥｌＮｉｎｏ海区海温的时间和空间结构及其相关关系，其第一模态之间具有明显相关，反映了前期东亚冬季风与后期ＥｌＮｉｎｏ海区海温的非同步关系。指出：前期东亚冬季风异常，通过对海温的影响，对ＥｌＮｉｎｉｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）产生作用，强（弱）东亚冬季风有利于ＥｌＮｉｎｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）的发生发展。因此，东亚冬季风是一种预测短期灾害性气候异常的前兆信号。Based on the East Asian winter monsoon intensity index,the relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and El Nino (La Nina) is further analysed.There are stronger East Asian winter monsoons prior to the occurrence of 14 El Nino events in 20 El Nino events and there is weaker one prior to the occurrence of 9 La Nina events in 15 Na Nina events during 1910～1990.By applying Singular Value Decomposition(SVD),the relationship between the previous East Asian winter monsoon and the late SST in El Nino sea region is studied.The first modes of the two fields derived from SVD have obvious asynchronous correlation.The anomalies of previous East Asian winter monoon,by effecting the SST,influence El Nino(La Nina) and the stronger(weaker) East Asian winter monsoon is beneficial to the occurrence and development of El Nino(La Nina) event.Therefore,East Asian winter monsoon is a precursory signal for the prediction of disastrous climate anomalies.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风 SVD 前兆信号 厄尔尼诺 季风 

分 类 号：P425.42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732.6