宁夏沙湖旅游地生命周期分析与发展预测研究  

Tourism destination lifecycle analysis and development prediction of Shahu Lake in Ningxia Province

作　　者：王联兵[1] 刘小鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院资源学系,陕西西安710127 [2]宁夏大学资源环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2010年第3期473-479,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：宁夏"十二五"规划前期重大问题研究项目(09NXFGY005)

摘　　要：旅游地生命周期及其发展预测研究,对于进一步指导旅游地规划、建设和管理具有重要的指导作用。但是,针对西北干旱半干旱区湖泊与池沼旅游地发展规律和趋势的研究还比较薄弱。通过运用Butler旅游地生命周期理论,以1990-2008年游客数量、游客增长率和滑动平均数等指标数据为依据,系统分析了宁夏沙湖旅游地生命周期,并结合直线和指数趋势预测模型,得出了近5 a游客的变化。研究结果表明,沙湖旅游地生命周期经历了4个阶段,即探索阶段(1989年以前)、参与阶段(1990-1999年)、发展阶段(2000-2004年)和巩固阶段(2005年至今)。经预测,2009-2013年沙湖旅游地游客人数分别为58.67、60.69、62.71、64.73和66.75×104人次。Development on the evolution of different types of tourism destination is one of the main concerns of related subjects and scholars,and the standard of the measurement on tourism development evolution is the focus of the debate.Butler＇s tourism destination lifecycle theory plays an important guiding role in the process of development on both micro and macro-evolution of a tourism destination because of its maturity and widely application in many tourism destinations.Wetlands eco-system in arid region of Northwest China is the organic component of the whole oasis eco-system,which has the important influence,interactive effect and plays an irreplaceable and important function in regulating the amount of water,local microclimate and the structure,function,tendency of oasis as well as guaranteeing the stable development and the benign cycle of oasis,meanwhile,it is also a kind of important tourism resources.Scientifically analysis the development rule and trend of Wetlands tourism area in such pattern of region is undoubtedly more realistic and has long-term comprehensive effect and significance.The tourism destination lifecycle and its development prediction study play an important part in further guidance on tourism planning,construction and management,however,for the lake and pond tourism destinations in arid and semi-arid area,the study on its rule and trend is still relatively weak.This paper takes Shahu Lake at Ningxia Province as the study case which lies in the near east of Northwest China.As a famous lake and pond landscapes of tourism destination,Shahu Lake has become one of the national 5A-class tourist scenic spots after 20 years＇ development and construction,the number of visitors keeps a rising trend on the whole,but due to many factors,tourist annual growth rate keeps a fluctuating state.By using tourism destination lifecycle theory of Butler,taking indexes data such as tourist quantity,tourist increment rate and sliding mean value from 1990-2008 as the bases,making system analysis on Ningxia Shahu

关 键 词：沙湖 旅游地 生命周期 预测 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]