基于数据包络分析的溃坝洪水灾害脆弱性评价  

Evaluation of Vulnerability to Dam-break Disaster by Using the DEA Method

作　　者：程翠云[1] 钱新[1] 盛金保[2] 李雷[2] 杨孟[1] 陈兆丰[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2010年第3期144-147,157,共5页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划"水库大坝风险控制非工程措施研究"(2006BAC14B05)

摘　　要：水库大坝的溃决将会对下游自然、经济和社会产生灾难性影响,对溃坝洪水灾害的脆弱性分析有助于科学制定减轻灾害损失措施。提出了一种基于数据包络分析模型定量计算溃坝洪水灾害脆弱性的方法,并结合实例加以应用。应用结果表明,该方法具有可行性,并得出实例研究区中的小河区和南明区属于溃坝洪水灾害的高脆弱区,花溪区属于中脆弱区和云岩区属于低脆弱区,可为该区制定减灾措施提供一定参考价值。Dam break can cause disastrous consequences to natural,economic,and social systems in the downstream area.Analysis of vulnerability to dam-break disaster helps develop measures of mitigating disaster losses.This paper presents a quantitative method for evaluating vulnerability of dam-break disaster based on data envelopment analysis method with the downstream area of Huaxi dam as an example.Results show that Xiaohe District and Nanming District have high vulnerability,Huaxi District has middle vulnerability,and Yunyan District has low vulnerability in the study area.The study also provides some reference values for developing measures of mitigating disaster losses.

关 键 词：DEA 决策单元 溃坝洪水灾害 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]