美国征收碳关税对中国的影响:基于可计算一般均衡模型的分析  

The Impact of Carbon Motivated Border Tax on China: An Analysis Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：鲍勤[1,2] 汤铃[2,3] 杨列勋[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [4]国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部,北京100085

出　　处：《管理评论》2010年第6期25-33,24,共10页Management Review

基　　金：中国科学院和中国科协项目(2009ZCYJ03)

摘　　要：美国拟对包括中国在内的不实施碳减排限额政策的国家的出口产品征收碳关税。本文基于2007年数据,使用包含37个生产部门和4个国外账户的可计算一般均衡模型,测算了美国征收碳关税对我国对外贸易、经济、环境等方面的影响。针对10种碳关税税率情景的测算结果表明:碳关税将直接给我国对外贸易带来巨额财富损失,进一步对我国整个经济造成极大的负面影响;此外,尽管碳关税能在一定程度上减少碳排放,但其环境改善的效果相对有限。Carbon motivated border tax adjustments have been proposed by the USA against the countries without emissions reduction commitments which include China and other developing countries. This paper investigates the size of impact of this carbon motivated border tax on China＇s foreign trade, macro economy and environment. Based on the 2007 data, we build a computable general equilibrium model which contains 37 production industries and 4 foreign accounts. The numerical simulation is carried out in ten scenarios, and the results suggest that the carbon motivated border tax will cut off large quantity of the profit from China＇s exports, bring lots of loss to China＇s foreign trade, and have strongly negative effect on China＇s economy. Although the tax adjustments will somehow decrease the energy intensity and reduce the overall carbon emission, the positive effect on environment will be limited.

关 键 词：碳关税 进出口 影响分析 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F752.7