市场环境下电网投资风险评估的集对分析方法  

Power Grid Investment Risk Evaluation Model Based on Set-pair Analysis Theory in Power Market

作　　者：王绵斌[1] 谭忠富[2] 张丽英[2] 蔡丞恺[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电网有限公司电网建设分公司,北京市西城区100140 [2]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2010年第19期91-99,共9页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70571023);新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-060208)~~

摘　　要：市场环境下,电网投资面临着上网电价、各类用户的销售电量、基准折现率等不确定性因素,其波动将给供电公司带来经营风险,因此研究不确定性条件下的电网投资决策模型具有一定的实际意义。从成本和收益的角度,构建电网投资的成本–效益净现值(net present value,NPV)模型,并分析其存在的不确定性因素;根据集对分析的定义和性质,推导出集对分析的运算法则和i值的确定方法,并说明其应用的合理性;运用集对分系数公式进行推导,并根据净现值的公式,构建电网投资的决策评价模型。算例表明所构建的决策评估模型是可行的,可为供电公司的电网投资提供一定的参考。There are a lot of uncertainties in power grid investment activities, such as generation price, electricity sale of kinds consumers and benchmark return rate in power market Their fluctuation will give power-supplying company some operation risk. So To research the decision-making model has a considerable importance for power grid investment in uncertain conditions. The paper builds the cost-benefit net present value （NPV） model for power grids investment and analyses it＇s uncertainties. Based on definition and characteristic, the operation rules of set-pair and calculation method of ＂i＂ are deduced, and the rationality in application is also explained. With set-pair analysis rules the paper induces the set pair coefficient formula of uncertainties in power grid investment, and constructs the decision-making model of investment according to NPV formula. The example shows the model is feasible and can provide power supplying company some references to investment.

关 键 词：集对分析理论 联系度 不确定性因素 风险度量 电网投资 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]