采用改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测模型  

A Predictive Model of Wind Speed Based on Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process

作　　者：黄文杰[1] 傅砾[1] 肖盛[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2010年第7期164-168,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：针对风速具有较强随机性的特点,提出一种基于改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测组合模型。以风速预测周期、风速的振荡性及预测者对预测模型的信赖度为目标准则;通过模糊判断矩阵的方法确定组合模型的最优权重。该组合模型可以综合考虑影响风速预测的多种不确定性因素,在综合不同模型预测结果的基础上引入专家经验。算例分析表明,该组合预测模型的预测结果与传统的单一预测模型相比,误差更小,精度更高。In view of strong randomness of wind speed and based on improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, a combined model to predict wind speed is presented. Taking predictive cycle of wind speed, fluctuation of wind speed and the reliability of predictor to the predictive model as objectives, by means of fuzzy judgment matrix the optimal weight of the combined model is determined. With the proposed combined model, various uncertain factors impacting wind speed prediction can be comprehensively taken into account, and the expert experiences can be led in on the basis of synthesizing prediction results from different predictive models. Analysis on results of calculation example shows that the prediction results by the proposed predictive model are more accurate than those from traditional single predictive model.

关 键 词：风速预测 组合模型:模糊层次分析法 时序差分自回归滑动平均模型 自适应模糊神经删络模型 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]