发展中大国外贸增长的“转移支付”效应  

The Transfer Payments Effect of Large Developing Countries' Foreign Trade Growth

作　　者：易先忠[1] 张杨[1] 阳志梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第6期47-56,96,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：湖南省社科基金项目:"发展中大国外贸竞争力的特殊性研究"(09YBA082);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"大国综合优势形成机理及框架分析"(200801057)

摘　　要：Bhagwati指出,大国出口偏向型经济增长会导致贸易条件恶化,从而发生福利的对外"转移支付"。基于UNCTAD 1995年以来的商品贸易数据对巴西、南非、印度、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和中国六个发展中大国的对外"转移支付"效应进行测度,结果显示:1995年以来,除了巴西和南非无偿享有了贸易伙伴国的福利,其余四国都发生了明显的福利对外"转移支付",墨西哥和印度尼西亚甚至遭受了收入贸易条件的恶化。并进一步从进出口贸易结构分析了导致外贸增长绩效产生差异的原因。Bhagwati pointed out that export-bias economic growth of the large country probably worsen terms of trade,which induces the welfare transfer abroad.Based on the merchandise trade data of UNCTAD since 1995,this paper estimates the transfer payments effect of Brazil,South Africa,India,Mexico,Indonesia and China.The analysis found that： Since 1995,except Brazil and South Africa enjoy the benefits of trading partners,obvious external transfer payments took place in the other four large countries,Mexico and Indonesia even experienced the deterioration of terms of trade income.Further analysis from trade structure is conducted to probe the reasons led to the welfare difference of foreign trade growth.

关 键 词：外贸增长 福利转移 贸易结构 贸易条件 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]