Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century  

作　　者：LI QingXiang DONG WenJie LI Wei GAO XiaoRong JONES P KENNEDY J PARKER D 

机构地区：[1]National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081, China [2]Beijing Normal University, Laboratory of Surface Process and Resources Economies, Beijing 100875, China [3]National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China [4]Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK [5]Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2010年第19期1974-1982,共9页

基　　金：supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme-GA01101;supported by the National Science and Technology Supporting Plan of the Twelfth Five-Year (2007BAC29B01-01);the Ministry of Science and Technology of China through the based-platforms special project of the scientific data sharing system (2005DKA31700-01);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40605021);China Meteorological Administration Special Foundation for Climate Change (540000G010C01)

摘　　要：We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3,a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900,to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability.We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data:measurement and sampling errors,uncertainties in temperature bias estimates,and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated.We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record.The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole,and 0.14±0.021°C/decade,0.11±0.021°C/decade,0.04±0.017°C/decade,and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter,spring,summer and autumn respectively.For 1954-2006,the trends for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn are:0.26±0.032°C/decade,0.35±0.046°C/decade,0.25±0.051°C/decade,0.16±0.037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade.Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006,while during the most recent period(the satellite era,1979-2006),all the seasons show similar warming trends:0.45±0.13°C/decade,0.51±0.11°C/decade,0.52±0.16°C/decade,0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual,winter,spring,summer and autumn.Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001,so this bias was not removed.We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3, a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900, to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability. We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data： measurement and sampling errors, uncertainties in temperature bias estimates, and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated. We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record. The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017℃/decade for the year as a whole, and 0.14±0.021℃/decade, 0.1 1±0.021℃/decade, 0.04±0.017℃/decade, and 0.07±0.017℃/decade for winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively. For 1954-2006, the trends for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn are： 0.26±0.032℃/deeade, 0.35±0.046℃/decade, 0.25±0.051℃/decade, 0.16±0.037℃/decade and 0.22±0.055℃/decade. Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006, while during the most recent period （the satellite era, 1979-2006）, all the seasons show similar warming trends： 0.45±0.13℃/decade, 0.51±0.11℃/decade, 0.52±0.16℃/decade, 0.37±0.10℃/decade and 0.50±0.16℃/decade for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn. Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001, so this bias was not removed.

关 键 词：不确定性 温度变化 中国历史 评估 变暖趋势 偏差估计 月平均温度 抽样误差 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]