房地产行业对三次产业增长的贡献度研究  

Research on the Contribution of Real Estate Industry to Thrice Industry

作　　者：蒲勇健[1] 晏国菀[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《经济与管理》2010年第7期5-9,共5页Economy and Management

摘　　要：房地产业对国民经济增长具有很强的带动效应。运用协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲破响应函数等方法,从数量上研究房地产行业和三次产业的相关性,结果显示,房地产业对三次产业有明显的正影响,带动效应的大小顺序依次为第二产业、第三产业、第一产业。第三产业和房地产业在短期内出现失衡的可能性不大。这个结论和房地产业在国民经济中的主导地位相吻合,房地产业可引领三次产业乃至整个国民经济的增长。The development of real estate will directly impact the stability of the macro-economy.By quantitatively researching on the relationship between real estate and thrice industry,with conitegration analysis,ECM and IRF,the results show that real estate make remarkably positive impact on thrice industry,ranking in secondary industry,tertiary industry and primary industry.It＇s not possible to be unbalanced in tertiary industry and real estate recently.This result coordinates with the leading station of real estate in our economy,and real estate will be in leading station for development of real estate and the whole national economy.

关 键 词：房地产业 三次产业 协整关系 贡献度 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]