陆面参数随机扰动对一次暴雨过程模拟的影响分析  

Numerical Simulation on the Sensitivity of a Heavy Rain Case to the Random Disturbances of Land Surface Parameters

作　　者：熊仕焱[1] 曾新民[1,2] 刘金波[1] 吴志皇[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101 [2]教育部中尺度灾害性天气重点实验室,南京大学,南京210093

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2010年第2期117-121,共5页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40875067号);中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目(IAP09306)共同资助

摘　　要：利用中尺度模式WRFV2.2,选取其中NOAH陆面模式进行陆面参数随机扰动试验,模拟研究了南京地区2007年7月8—9日的暴雨对扰动的敏感性。结果表明:(1)此次暴雨过程对陆面参数随机扰动较为敏感,其中对土壤最大容积含水量的扰动最为敏感,对地表反照率的扰动敏感性次之,对地表粗糙度、最小叶孔阻抗扰动的敏感性较前两者要小;(2)降水变化的触发原因是陆面参数扰动引起的通量变化,其主要的机制是通过低层大气环流(如低空急流)和水汽辐合来影响暴雨的落区和强度。The simulation of the heavy rainfall occurring in Nanjing during 8 ~9 July, 2007 was conducted to test the sensitivity of the rainfall to the random perturbation of NOAH land surface parameters by using WRFV2.2. The conclusions show： （1） The heavy rainfall is sensitive to random perturbations of the land surface parameters. The maximum volumetric soil water is the most sensitive to disturbance, the second is surface albedo, and the surface roughness length and the minimum stomatal resistance are less sensitive to the disturbance than the first two. （2） These disturbances directly result in the change in the surfaces fluxes, and more importantly, through the change in the low-level circulations （e.g., low-level jet） and moisture convergence, greatly influence the intensity and area of the heavy rainfall.

关 键 词：陆面参数 随机扰动 暴雨 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]