泊松分布在水文频率计算中的应用  

Application of Poisson Distribution in hydrological frequency analysis

作　　者：颜亦琪[1] 易建军[1,2] 孙华安 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文学院,江苏南京210098 [2]深圳中广核工程设计有限公司,广东深圳518057

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第12期92-94,共3页Yangtze River

基　　金：黄河洪水管理亚行贷款项目资助(YH-SW-XH-02)

摘　　要：超定量洪水频率分析通过设定阈值选取洪水样本系列并进行频率分析。采用对比年极值选取样本方法可从基本观测资料中获取更多的信息,从而可提供更多对工程有影响的洪水频率特性。进行超定量洪水频率分析首先应选择合适的阈值,该值的选取是判别超定量洪水发生次数是否服从泊松分布的重要条件。通过对黄河干流几个主要水文站洪水系列进行超定量洪水频率分析,采用P-Ⅲ线型分布拟合,初步检验了基于泊松分布的超定量洪水频率分析在黄河流域的适应程度。In frequency analysis of partial duration flood,threshold value is determined to selected flood samples and then frequency analysis is conducted.PDS（Partial Duration Series） model can collect more information than AMS model（Annual Maximum System） from basic observation data and provide more frequency characteristics of flood for project design.In order to analyze the frequency of partial duration flood,firstly,the rational threshold value should be selected,which is an important condition to identify whether the times of partial duration flood series obey Poisson Distribution.Through frequency analysis of partial duration flood according to the flood series of several main hydrological stations on the Yellow River and frequency fitting by P-Ⅲ type distribution,the suitability of partial duration flood frequency analysis based on Poisson Distribution in the Yellow River Basin is verified.

关 键 词：超定量洪水 泊松分布 PDS概率模型 频率分析 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]