南京市水资源承载力的主成分分析  

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity in Nanjing City using principal components method

作　　者：陈慧[1] 冯利华[1] 孙丽娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学旅游与资源管理学院,浙江金华321004 [2]四川农业大学经济管理学院,四川雅安625014

出　　处：《人民长江》2010年第12期95-98,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40771044)

摘　　要：水资源承载力是一个伴随社会、经济、科学技术发展而变化的综合指标。根据南京市1998~2008年的9个经济发展相关指标,引入主成分分析方法,分析南京市水资源承载力,从9个指标中选取出影响水资源承载力动态变化的3个主成分,即：固定资产值、居民消费水平;人口;水资源开发利用。以3个主成分的贡献率为权重,再结合主成分各因子得分,对南京市水资源承载力进行了综合评价。综合评价结果表明：1998~2008年南京市的水资源承载力在下降。但就目前的现状来看,南京市的水资源开发利用率还比较低,还有一定的承载力空间。Water resources carrying capacity is a comprehensive indicator changing with the development of society,economy,and science and technology.We apply principal component method to evaluate water resources carrying capacity in Nanjing City according to 9 economic development indicators from 1998 to 2008;3 principal components which affect the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity are selected,including： fixed assets and household consumption,population,water resources development and utilization.Adopting the contribution ratios of three principal components as weight in combination with their scores,a comprehensive evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of Nanjing City is conducted.The results show that Nanjing water resources carrying capacity from 1998 to 2008 was declining,however,the utilization rate was relatively low with some surplus carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 影响因子 主成分分析 南京 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]