一种飞机电子系统寿命及可靠性预估方法  

An Estimating Method for Airborne Avionics Life and Its Reliability

作　　者：陈静杰[1] 石静[1] 董健康[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学航空自动化学院,天津300300

出　　处：《航空电子技术》2010年第2期36-40,共5页Avionics Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60832011和60572166);天津市重点科技攻关项目(06YFGZGX00700);博士启动基金(QD03X02)

摘　　要：鉴于多种多种因素影响,航电设备实际寿命与OEM设计寿命往往有较大差异。基于此,采用D-S算法,针对某航空公司UNIT-IRU系列部分设备真实服役数据,建立了单一因素融合和多因素融合设备寿命预估及可靠度计算方法。考虑样本规模的限制,略去计算量的细微差异,后一方法将基本分配概率的不确定性由20%降低到5%左右,表明多因素方法预估结果准确性和可靠度更高,实用性更强。Accurate estimation of airbome avionics life is the key to determine the optimum maintenance time, is also the access to achieve cost-effectiveness for civil aviation maintenance. Affected by various factors, there are large differences between actual service life of avionics and OEM designed life. Based on these conditions, this paper provides single factor fusion and integration of multi-factors to estimate the life of avionics equipment and calculate reliability for some real service data of UNIT-IRU series avionics obtained from an airline. Both of the two methods are based on the D-S method. Considering the limitation of sample size and omitted nuances of calculation amount, the latter method reduced the uncertainty of basic probability distribution from about 20% to 5%.It also shows that the result of multi-factor D-S method has higher accurateness and reliability for estimating life of avionics equipment, besides, the method has more practicality.

关 键 词：数据融合 寿命预估 D—S算法 可靠性 

分 类 号：V241.01[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]