应对国际金融危机的货币政策效果  

The Effects of Monetary Policy in Response to the International Financial Crisis

作　　者：陆荣[1] 王曦[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院金融系 [2]中山大学岭南学院国际商务系

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2010年第7期19-29,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(200504);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划;国家自然科学基金项目(70671110);中山大学青年教师培育项目的资助

摘　　要：伴随国际金融危机影响的深入,扩张性的货币政策作为当前总需求调节的重要手段,其对经济刺激的效果值得关注。鉴于信贷渠道是我国货币政策的最重要渠道,本文在M-F的模型框架下,引入Bernanke和Blinder(1988)的经典论文的结论,构建我们的经济结构模型。并在该模型指导下建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型以估计经济系统的动态调节特征,并利用脉冲响应函数计算了本轮扩张性货币政策对经济的总体拉动效应,进而分析、比较了各渠道的效果。最后基于模型的实证结论,通过权衡货币政策的拉动效应和带来的通胀压力,认为本轮扩张性货币政策将会渐进而平稳地淡出。As the international financial crisis continues, the stimulating effect on economy of the expansionary monetary policy is worthy of great concern. In view of the significant importance of credit channel in the operation of monetary policy in China, this paper constructs an economic structural model in the framework of the M-F model, by incorporating Bernanke and Blinder＇s 1955 paper. Under the guidance of the above model, a structure vector autoregressive （SVAR） model is established to estimate the dynamic adjusting features of the economic system. The paper then calculates the overall effect of the current round of expansionary monetary policy in boosting the economy by applying impulse response function, which further investigates the effectiveness of various adjusting channels. Finally, based on the empirical results of the model, as well as the tradeoff between pull-off effect due to the monetary policy and its negative effect on the inflation, we conclude that this round of expansionary monetary policy is expected to be drawn back in a smooth and gradual way.

关 键 词：货币政策 SVAR 货币渠道 信贷渠道 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]